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Predictive performance of the 2005 Annual Vulnerability Assessments in Lesotho and Malawi
04 December 2006
Risk and vulnerability patterns in southern Africa are affected by political, socio-economic, and environmental conditions and HIV/AIDS. Typical annual vulnerability assessments provide predictions of pending rural livelihood-cum-food crises. While concerns regarding the reliability and accuracy of these predictions may have been a factor in donors? cautious approaches to recent humanitarian appeals, scepticism about the correctness of forecasts can come at a high cost. Notwithstanding the major achievements in the Malawi emergency response programme in the period October 2005 to March 2006, delayed and partial responses - July to September 2005 - contributed to extreme food price fluctuation which worsened the levels of household vulnerability in late 2005 and early 2006.
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